Tag: data

Data as Menetekel 6: Nitrogen dioxide limit invented

Alexander Kekulé, Director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology of the University Hospital Halle (Saale), has written an article in the ZEIT from 08.11.2018 – online behind the payment barrier – “Hysteria around the wrong thing. the limit of 40 micrograms for the exhaust gas is taken from the air”. To be read as facsimile on http://www.gegenwind-saarland.de/Klimawandel/181108-ZEIT-Hysterie-um-NO2.mrkd.pdf-Hysterie-um-NO2.mrkd.pdf . A shortened version was published in the Tagesspiegel of 10.11.2018, but no longer available on the online page of the TAGESSPIEGEL, but only via PRESSREADER. https://www.pressreader.com/germany/der-tagesspiegel/20181110/281715500636547
Subsequently, in 1993, the EU decided to set long-term air quality objectives, including a strict NO limit value. The legitimacy of such a value had to be based on the work of the World Health Organization (WHO). In order to reduce the then valid WHO guideline value of 150 micrograms, a working group was formed there, which made use of a meta-analysis from a five-year older report by the US Environmental Protection Agency. According to Kekulé, the meta-analysis evaluated various research projects whose parameters were completely different. Despite these completely different influencing factors, the result was “that respiratory diseases are 20 percent more frequent in households with gas cookers than in households with electric cookers”. However, no measured values could be derived from this, as very different concentrations (8 – 2500 micrograms) were found in households with gas cookers. “In the absence of useful data, the experts estimated without further ado that a gas stove increases the mean annual NO concentration in the household to about 40 micrograms and suggested this value as a guideline. To date, there is no evidence that the figure has anything to do with the health effects of NO”. Without verifying this, the EU adopted it as the legal limit. “To date, there are no robust data supporting the 40 microgram limit.”

Are statistical data facts?

In an article dated 02.11.2018 in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the article “The Federal Statistical Office creates the facts for Swiss democracy. Then it makes a mistake” how statistical data were officially changed:
“The statistics on the expulsion of foreign criminals showed that the state had allegedly expelled only 54 percent of them – the figure suggested that the others had been classified as hardship traps and had therefore not been expelled from the country. The topic is explosive, so far the effect of the expulsion initiative could not be quantified. After the first indignation, the BfS recalculated: 69 percent. Then it deleted the statistics completely from the website.”
Are data complex so that they need to be reduced in complexity in order to be comprehensible? Are statistical data facts or are they interpretations? What interpretations do you agree on or are the interpretations fake news?
“Of course statistics are highly political,” says Ulrich (the director). Because what is measured and how is political, who is asked and what questions are asked. “There is no truth, one can only agree on what one wants to measure. How high is poverty? Education? The gross domestic product? You make politics with indicators because you have agreed on them. “But in the end, everyone looks for their own truth in the statistics, that has always been the case,” says Ulrich.
“The withdrawal of BfS’s deportation figures shows that it is always necessary to agree again on what the facts are and how they are created. But the Fake News calls have sown one doubt: that there is such a thing as facts, that there is anything at all that has been agreed upon in this country.”

Data as mood enhancer fake

In addition to its function as a warning sign, data also serves to brighten the mood:
Heiner Flassbeck: “About Fake News and Misappropriated Truths”, Makroskop 29.08.28, describes how the slightly increased IFO index (ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich) in the last month was acclaimed in today’s news, but this does not correspond to the overall data situation: “The moderator’s jubilation and his statement are very close to a false report, because the mood is not “extremely good”, but … better than a month ago, but still far worse than at the turn of the year. Expectations have risen particularly, which may indeed have something to do with political news, while the assessment of the situation has changed only slightly.”
Mark Schieritz: “Five to eight / European Central Bank: The myth of the expropriation of savers” , in: ZEIT online 30.08.2018 claims that the financial assets of German savers have not suffered a loss due to low interest rates and inflation. This is a myth. (The real figures can be found here, for example: Interest rate gains and losses for German savers. Development of interest rate gains and losses from 2003 to 2018. tagesgeldvergleich.net) The reason he cites is that the financial assets of private households in Germany have increased overall since 2010 – for whatever reason. “One would like to be expropriated a little more”. The reason for the alleged myth of the loss of interest: “The myth is supposed to fuel resentment against the EU”. In any case, he tries to prevent this by using a data mood enhancer fake.

Data as Menetekel 5: Measuring stations for NO 2 measurement

The measuring stations for NO2 measurement in Germany as defined in the DIRECTIVE 2008/50/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 21 May 2008 on air quality and clean air for Europe and the Neununddreißigste Verordnung zur Durchführung des Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetzes (Verordnung über Luftqualitätsstandards und Emissionshöchstmengen – 39. BImSchV) Anlage 3 C. Kleinräumige Ortsbestimmung der Probenahmestellen, there are mostly locations that do not meet the requirements. See Holger Douglas: Große Leseraktion: Wie manipulieren Messstationen die Feinstaubmessung in Ihrer Stadt?, Tichys Einblick 23.03.2018.This means that some of the measured values are not valid and cannot be compared with each other.
While the problems were ignored or denied by the federal government and cities (e.g.Wiesbaden), the conference of transport ministers on April 19, 2018 under item 4.2 of the agenda: Air pollution control b) Valid NO2 measurements as a basis for legally compliant air pollution control plans demanded that the validity of measuring point locations be checked in accordance with European requirements. Among other things, it is demanded:
“The Conference of Transport Ministers considers it necessary for the installation of the measuring equipment to be carried out according to a uniform standard throughout Germany and Europe, because comparisons of the measuring results and the necessary legal requirements must be met.
equal treatment of those affected on the ground would otherwise be impossible. The Conference of Transport Ministers suggests that the review should in particular address issues such as
a) the prescribed spatial representativeness of the measurements for a larger area in a city, not only for a small room in the immediate vicinity of the measuring station,
(b) the temporal relevance with regard to the period during which the population is exposed to a relevant exposure,
c) the correct placement of the measuring inlet of the station,
(d) the prescribed avoidance of backwater measurements from crossings,
(e) the prescribed avoidance of measurements below obstacles such as trees.”

 

Data as Menetekel 4: The secret of the 400,000

In the political discussion, data form the basis of a rational discussion. Data as a warning disguise and manipulate this discussion. The example of a shortage of skilled workers in Germany. There should be a shortage of skilled workers
2005 400.000
2007 400.000
2008 400.000
2010 400.000
2017 400.000
2018 500.000
There will also be a shortage of skilled workers in Switzerland by 2030. It is – who could be surprised – 400,000.
400,000 are obviously a number with which one can form public opinion without having to enter directly into options for action. Some critical contributions already show that there are some concrete things to discuss.

„Fachkräftemangel ist ein Kassenschlager“
Jakob Osman: So führen uns Politiker und Lobbyisten in die Irre. Das Märchen vom Fachkräftemangel, Manager Magazin 09.03.2017

 

Data as Menetekel 3: 500000 immigrants

How to turn a spring report from the economic institutes into Menetekel- Fake-News

“We need a pension with 70 – or 500,000 immigrants per year” is the title of the WELT https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article175616647/Wir-brauchen-Rente-mit-70-oder-500-000-Zuwanderer-im-Jahr.html 19.04.2018 and continues in the article:
“In view of the government’s latest promises, researchers see only two options for keeping contribution rates stable: Either the Germans will work until they are over 70, or they will attract young, employed immigrants. In that case, it is calculated that more than 500,000 people would have to enter the country every year.”
With the corresponding tenor, this report went through the other media.
In the spring report of the economic institutes p. 61 the exact opposite is stated:
“An increase in the statutory pension insurance contribution rate could in principle be prevented by raising the retirement age beyond 67 years or by increasing immigration of younger workers, but both seem unrealistic in view of the necessary dimensions: the contribution rate to the statutory old-age pension insurance following the introduction of the planned pension scheme In the long-term, to cap performance increases to 20 percent, the retirement age would theoretically have to exceed 70 years, or the inflow of younger workers would exceed 500,000 every year. “
So they demand neither the one nor the other, but criticize the pension increase of the Federal Government.

Can trust be generated digitally?

The blockchain hype relies on processes and data management to run safely and more effectively. Does this also make the content more credible? Can trust be generated digitally? Kai Stinchcombe, head of a financial services company, says no:

“Blockchain systems do not magically make the data in them accurate or the people entering the data trustworthy, they merely enable you to audit whether it has been tampered with. A person who sprayed pesticides on a mango can still enter onto a blockchain system that the mangoes were organic. A corrupt government can create a blockchain system to count the votes and just allocate an extra million addresses to their cronies. An investment fund whose charter is written in software can still misallocate funds.”

The real problem is still the prerequisites and the trustworthiness of the data at the beginning of the process chain.

 

Kai Stinchcombe: Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future, Medium 05.04.2018

Sieht so das Internet der Zukunft aus? Die Blockchain soll das Geschäftsleben revolutionieren und eine neue Ära der Demokratie einläuten. Nun gibt es erste Dienste, die erahnen lassen, wohin die Reise geht. Tagesanzeiger 10.07.2018