Tag: fake news

Data as Menetekel 7: More than a quarter of the tweets on the migration pact Social Bots?

On 10.12.2018 the WELT published an article by Jan Lindenau: Robots mobilize against migration pact (behind the pay barrier). According to the article, Botswatch evaluated an analysis of 800,000 tweets between 24 November and 2 December. As a result, it announces that over a quarter of these tweets were social bots that created a mood against the migration pact in terms of content. This news was spread throughout the German press.
However, the analysis itself and the methodology proclaimed as a trade secret were not disclosed. This and the incomprehensible results met with considerable criticism from experts. Social media analyst Luca Hammer criticized the statements on Twitter. In a sample, he found that the proportion of bots – including automated information bots from the press – is around 6 percent. Data journalist Michael Kreil has written an open letter to Botswatch:
“We urgently need scientifically based, methodologically correct analyses of these processes! What we don’t need are actors who kidnap the discourse with unproven allegations, spread panic and uncertainty, and inadequately advise the federal government. For me, it is currently not possible to tell which position you would like to take with botswatch. Therefore I ask you, Mrs Wilke, to release the methods and data of your study “Social Bots and Migration Pact” for an independent, scientific review.”

The course of the discussion is described in the articles by Robert Tusch: Kritik an Botswatch: Warum die Debatte um die Social Bot-Studie zum Migrationspakt für Medien ist wichtig, in: Meedia vom 12.12.2018 sowie von Markus Reuter: Ein Bot allein macht keine Revolte. And also no migration debate, reproduced in: netzpolitik.org of 10.12.2018. It also deals with the methodological problems of identifying bots and other forms of accounts, which are more important for political influence on the net. “Alone in view of the influence of humanly operated accounts, it is simply dubious and subcomplex to try to explain social movements or hard-fought social discourses with bots.”
Jonas Hermann: Did bots have a one-sided influence on the debate on the migration pact? Neue Zürcher Zeitung of 13.12.2018 summarises the criticism and discussion once again. He points to Botswatch’s close personal ties to the CDU.
“The bot analysis was published on the day the migration pact was passed. This may or may not be a coincidence. What is certain, however, is that it can be used to discredit critics of the Pact and to present the debate about it as inflated and externally controlled.”
Thus, it is possible that it is not social bots, but freely invented data about social bots that should influence political discourse.

Data as mood enhancer fake

In addition to its function as a warning sign, data also serves to brighten the mood:
Heiner Flassbeck: “About Fake News and Misappropriated Truths”, Makroskop 29.08.28, describes how the slightly increased IFO index (ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich) in the last month was acclaimed in today’s news, but this does not correspond to the overall data situation: “The moderator’s jubilation and his statement are very close to a false report, because the mood is not “extremely good”, but … better than a month ago, but still far worse than at the turn of the year. Expectations have risen particularly, which may indeed have something to do with political news, while the assessment of the situation has changed only slightly.”
Mark Schieritz: “Five to eight / European Central Bank: The myth of the expropriation of savers” , in: ZEIT online 30.08.2018 claims that the financial assets of German savers have not suffered a loss due to low interest rates and inflation. This is a myth. (The real figures can be found here, for example: Interest rate gains and losses for German savers. Development of interest rate gains and losses from 2003 to 2018. tagesgeldvergleich.net) The reason he cites is that the financial assets of private households in Germany have increased overall since 2010 – for whatever reason. “One would like to be expropriated a little more”. The reason for the alleged myth of the loss of interest: “The myth is supposed to fuel resentment against the EU”. In any case, he tries to prevent this by using a data mood enhancer fake.

Data as Menetekel 3: 500000 immigrants

How to turn a spring report from the economic institutes into Menetekel- Fake-News

“We need a pension with 70 – or 500,000 immigrants per year” is the title of the WELT https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article175616647/Wir-brauchen-Rente-mit-70-oder-500-000-Zuwanderer-im-Jahr.html 19.04.2018 and continues in the article:
“In view of the government’s latest promises, researchers see only two options for keeping contribution rates stable: Either the Germans will work until they are over 70, or they will attract young, employed immigrants. In that case, it is calculated that more than 500,000 people would have to enter the country every year.”
With the corresponding tenor, this report went through the other media.
In the spring report of the economic institutes p. 61 the exact opposite is stated:
“An increase in the statutory pension insurance contribution rate could in principle be prevented by raising the retirement age beyond 67 years or by increasing immigration of younger workers, but both seem unrealistic in view of the necessary dimensions: the contribution rate to the statutory old-age pension insurance following the introduction of the planned pension scheme In the long-term, to cap performance increases to 20 percent, the retirement age would theoretically have to exceed 70 years, or the inflow of younger workers would exceed 500,000 every year. “
So they demand neither the one nor the other, but criticize the pension increase of the Federal Government.

Data as Menetekel 2: 100,000 fawns

In the article in the German newspaper FAZ by  Erik HechtTausende tote Rehe erfunden. Die Spur führt nach Hamburg vom 14.07.2018 “is proven that the number of 100,000 deer kids that die in Germany from mowing machines on meadows was invented by the German Wildlife Foundation. The real number can only be estimated and is probably half. As sad as the death of every single fawn is, it is normal in almost all areas to influence public opinion with purely invented data.

Data as Menetekel 1: 6000 dead

According to the German Umweltbundesamt, 6000 people in Germany die prematurely each year from nitrogen oxide. This number has been criticized in several articles, e.g. Jan Fleischhauer, Kampf gegen den Diesel. The fictitious dead, in: Spiegel Online 15.03.2018 Epidemiological studies can only show correlations, but cannot prove causalities.
The President of the Umweltbundesamt (UBA), Maria Krautzberger: “In office we discuss again and again how we can talk about complicated data that we collect. When do we have to simplify in order to be understood? Governments need such figures and their comparability to know the sum of health risks to people and where they need to do something”.
In short: the data has been invented. This handling of data shows a specific relationship to the citizen. It is not intended to give them an insight into the risks and then use political discourse to determine which risks could be reduced at what cost. He remains an object of propaganda and must not experience one thing: Cows may be more dangerous than cars when it comes to nitric oxide.